Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.016672 0.018902 0.021324 0.024153 0.027367 0.030907 0.035104
2025-05-18 0.013040 0.016072 0.019655 0.024206 0.029843 0.036604 0.045349
2025-05-25 0.010857 0.014159 0.018289 0.023844 0.031138 0.040415 0.053149
2025-06-01 0.009597 0.013107 0.017708 0.024194 0.033133 0.045063 0.062267
2025-06-08 0.008458 0.012021 0.016882 0.024019 0.034275 0.048546 0.070030
2025-06-15 0.007814 0.011511 0.016739 0.024702 0.036585 0.053759 0.080639
2025-06-22 0.006860 0.010434 0.015654 0.023873 0.036561 0.055532 0.086289
2025-06-29 0.006191 0.009701 0.014984 0.023558 0.037221 0.058308 0.093635
2025-07-06 0.005506 0.008867 0.014069 0.022754 0.037005 0.059658 0.098783
2025-07-13 0.005264 0.008706 0.014177 0.023568 0.039420 0.065350 0.111485
2025-07-20 0.005000 0.008479 0.014152 0.024144 0.041472 0.070596 0.123895
2025-07-27 0.004774 0.008292 0.014168 0.024779 0.043660 0.076229 0.137467
2025-08-03 0.004405 0.007832 0.013695 0.024545 0.044349 0.079400 0.147095
2025-08-10 0.004111 0.007480 0.013381 0.024563 0.045491 0.083477 0.158797
2025-08-17 0.003791 0.007050 0.012884 0.024197 0.045879 0.086189 0.168152
2025-08-24 0.003605 0.006848 0.012784 0.024553 0.047641 0.091595 0.183206
2025-08-31 0.003364 0.006523 0.012423 0.024375 0.048349 0.095030 0.194655
2025-09-07 0.003254 0.006438 0.012508 0.025068 0.050827 0.102122 0.214208
2025-09-14 0.002971 0.005990 0.011854 0.024226 0.050126 0.102782 0.220382
2025-09-21 0.002773 0.005694 0.011474 0.023907 0.050463 0.105572 0.231334
2025-09-28 0.002540 0.005307 0.010880 0.023091 0.049677 0.105940 0.237006
2025-10-05 0.002490 0.005296 0.011056 0.023917 0.052486 0.114189 0.261054
2025-10-12 0.002418 0.005235 0.011118 0.024501 0.054813 0.121585 0.283865